🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.